5-Bullet Sunday

5-Bullet Sunday – #32

The eDGI family is back from a short road trip in Poland. We’ve seen beautiful forests, a stunning lake and many hills which reminded us Tuscany. Yes, we even went to a vineyard and did some wine-tasting ๐Ÿท

The weather was great, so this only magnified the feeling of being in a south-European country.

I actually realized that many of the readers of this blog are not from Poland and I can imagine that there’s some unawareness about the beauty of this country. If you ever have a chance, then I would definitely recommend to visit Poland or one of its neighbouring countries in the spring or in the summer.

Having said that, the break was great and I didn’t spend to much time following the financial news except for the hourly dose of earnings reports in the mornings. Hence, I’ll keep this weeks post a bit shorter than usual.

Enjoy today’s 5-Bullet Sunday!

5-Bullet Sundayย is a weekly blog post with 5 topics that were on my mind this week related to Financial Independence and Dividend Growth Investing or something that just fed my curiosity. An overview of earlier posts can be foundย here

๐ŸŒŸ Data beats emotions

I am a strong believer that we will face a second wave of corona-virus in September or October, especially if I see the lack of social distancing adherence at tourist destinations.

The media also started to report an increasing amount of cases in several countries in Europe. When people listen to this news then there are typically two kind of responses (or somewhere in between):

  • We need a lockdown asap!
  • We are testing more so this is just fake media!

Okay, point taken for both of them, so let’s just look at the data. I believe that in this case the Death Rate is the best indicator, although not a perfect one. Why not perfect:

  • it doesn’t account for survivors with long-lasting complications (shortness in breath)
  • death rates typically come with a 2-week delay
  • it doesn’t show the impact of improved treatments over time which just save lives.

Having the disease and surviving it is still not pleasant at all!

Having said that, one of the best sources out there for Europeans is the COVID-19 dashboard from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. I played a bit with the filters and this how the current death rate for Europe looks like:

Number of Deaths

Compare this to the number of cases and you can quickly see what I mean.

Number of Covid-19 confirmed cases

So the question then is: will we see the death-rate grow again in the upcoming week or is this the result of increased testing?

I believe the latter based on the data, because the trend in increased cases started already 4 weeks ago.

๐ŸŒŸ European Earnings

DSM reported reasonable numbers. I would like to have this stock in my portfolio, but will need to do some further analysis first. It’s definitely on my radar though.

Ahold Delhaize reported excellent numbers which smashed all my expectations.

Munich Re reported pretty weak numbers. The company was heavily impacted by the pandemic and we could see that in their numbers. The company reported Earnings per Share of 4.14 compared to 6.88 in Q2 2020. This was a drop of 40%. The biggest reason for the decline was the increased mortality rate under the life covers in the US. The stock is still holding up quite well and the market probably considers these one-offs.

๐ŸŒŸ Upcoming Earnings

We are nearing the end of earnings season, so this is probably my last upcoming earnings section for this quarter. See below some of the companies that are expected to report their earnings this week. Noble 30 Index members are identified with a โš” behind their name.ย 

๐ŸŒŸ Recommended Reads

This week I would like to share some reads about mindset and success which are essential ingredients for me to reach my goals. I’m definitely not perfect so it helps me to read these kind of posts, because it triggers some action again in me.

Adam wrote an interesting post about 7 mindsets to thrive in financial independence. I especially liked to read about the “now” vs later mindset. It resonated a lot with me and it’s something that I’m sometimes struggling with. I tend to mainly look forward and sometimes forget to consider the “now”.

Russ from Dapper Dividends wrote a short but interesting post about the top 10 differences between successful and unsuccessful people. I spotted few bullets that I can improve on. As an example: they have a plan for the day. Nope, I hardly ever have that, because somehow I’m a master procrastinator!

Good old Mr Money Mustache wrote a very nice article about the sweet spot. He also wrote a self-reflection towards the end of the post and it’s definitely something that I aim to do as well. I often have an unbalanced approach to things, because it’s either all or nothing.

๐ŸŒŸ Recommended Video

If there’s one investor that I’ve discovered this year then it’s definitely Cathie Wood from ARK investment. I love her take on the 5 themes of upcoming disruption and her fund is outperforming most investors by a land-mile! Unfortunately I didn’t find a way of investing in ARK as a European, so any suggestions are welcome.

Having said that, I very much enjoyed her speech at the SU global summit back in 2019.

That was it for 5-Bullet Sunday, edition #32

Have a lovely week ahead!

Yours Truly,

European Dividend Growth Investor

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